In a major escalation in West Asia, the United States (US) has bombed three of Iran's key nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This marks the first direct US military action inside Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This move follows mounting tensions between Israel and Iran, and brings a distant conflict closer to India’s energy and economic vulnerabilities.
What Happened?
The US operation, named "Midnight Hammer," involved stealth B-2 bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from submarines. The strikes targeted deeply buried nuclear enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz and a uranium conversion site in Isfahan. Satellite imagery reviewed by Reuters confirmed large-scale damage at Fordow and Natanz, with multiple craters visible. However, nuclear experts suggest Iran may have moved some enriched uranium in advance.
President Donald Trump, speaking on Truth Social, described the strikes as a "spectacular success" and hinted that regime change in Iran might be necessary "to Make Iran Great Again.”
Iran’s Response
Iranian officials have condemned the attacks as a violation of international law. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of "unprecedented levels of danger and chaos." Iran's parliament has since passed a resolution to close the Strait of Hormuz, though this would require final approval from the Supreme National Security Council.
So far, the Strait remains open. Analysts believe Iran is unlikely to close it entirely, as doing so would also damage its own oil revenues. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that, despite the strikes, no nuclear materials were released and radiation levels remain normal.
Strategic Fallout in the Region
This isn’t just a military move. It reflects a deeper strategic realignment, with the US aligning more overtly with Israel. The European Union, United Nations, and countries like China and Russia have called for de-escalation, but the situation remains volatile. Iran has hinted at mobilising its regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq and Syria.
Why India Should Be Concerned
While India is not directly involved, the conflict could significantly impact its economy and strategic interests. Here are the three main concerns:
1. Energy Supply Shock
India imports over 80% of its crude oil, and 40-50% of this travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption could lead to sharp increases in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, as noted by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
2. Rising Trade Costs
Conflict near key shipping lanes drives up insurance premiums, freight rates, and security costs. This makes imports more expensive, pushes inflation, and hurts the competitiveness of Indian exports.
3. Strategic Project Disruption
India’s investment in Iran’s Chabahar Port and its participation in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) may be delayed or disrupted due to regional instability. These projects are crucial for India's trade with Central Asia and Russia.
What Can India Do?
India has limited influence over the military outcomes, but several realistic steps can help cushion the blow:
1. Diversify Oil Suppliers
India can expand purchases from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Russia, and Qatar. Earlier in 2024, India signed LNG deals with Qatar to strengthen its energy security.
2. Boost Strategic Reserves
India maintains strategic petroleum reserves that cover several weeks of consumption. These should be topped up proactively to buffer short-term supply shocks.
3. Strengthen Diplomacy
India must push for de-escalation through forums like BRICS, G20, and the United Nations, while also using bilateral ties with Gulf countries to ensure energy corridors remain open.
4. Secure Alternate Trade Routes
India should fast-track agreements with Oman and other partners to ensure INSTC and Chabahar-based routes remain viable even amid regional tension.
The US-Israel vs Iran conflict may seem distant, but its impact on India is direct and potentially severe. With oil prices vulnerable, trade routes at risk, and strategic projects in jeopardy, the government must act pre-emptively. While it cannot control the war, India must not underestimate the fallout.
As this crisis unfolds, the real cost will not just be calculated in geopolitics but in rising prices, slowed growth, and disrupted plans, all of which hit ordinary Indians hardest.
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